G20 virtual summit: India's productive presidency – but what next?

On 22 November, India, as the president, hosted the second G20 summit. This was in the virtual format, a sequel to the main summit held on 9–10 September where leaders participated in person. Why was the second summit convened and whether it produced noticeable outcomes need a critical examination. 

Backdrop 

For G20, the world’s premier economic forum, an annual summit of the leaders is the general norm. It was followed scrupulously from 2011 to 2019. But when in 2008 G20 was elevated from finance ministers and central bank governors to the highest political level to tackle the global financial crisis, five summits were held within a short span of two years (November 2008–November 2010). In a similar vein, the outbreak of the Covid crisis and dramatic developments in Afghanistan compelled Saudi Arabia and Italy respectively to host two summits in a year during their presidencies. 

Following this precedent but without riding on the back of a crisis, India decided, before the Israel-Hamas war began, to host the second summit. Apparently, this decision was designed to ensure that the Indian presidency from 1 December 2022 to 30 November 2023 ran for a full 12 months and did not end with the first summit i.e., about seven weeks in advance. 

At the September summit, participants had advanced useful proposals even as the negotiations for the New Delhi Declaration concluded separately. The virtual summit aimed to achieve several purposes: review developments since the first summit including the results of the second ‘Voice of the Global South Summit’; “take forward” key outcomes and action points from the Delhi summit; and “push for effective implementation” of various decisions announced at New Delhi, according to the G20 secretariat. In hindsight, the conflict in West Asia, which broke out on 7 October, provided an additional justification. The final motivation may have been to bridge the transfer of the presidency from India to Brazil and reflect on how the G20 agenda may be shaped under a new president during 2023–24. 

Virtual summit highlights 

Initially, there was some uncertainty about participation in the virtual summit, but it turned out to be a well-attended meeting. Of the total members and guests, 23 countries were represented at the Heads of Government level. US President Joe Biden was absent, Russian President Vladimir Putin was present, and China was represented by its Premier. Besides, all heads of international organisations participated. While the virtual summit was not expected to issue a joint communiqué or the chair’s summary, enough information was made available to the public enabling it to form a clear view of what happened at the conference. 

Amitabh Kant, India's G20 Sherpa, pointed out that G20 works in continuity and that India's focus since the September summit has been on the implementation of decisions. Some of them have been implemented such as the admission of the African Union (AU) as a member of G20. New Delhi has been pushing many other issues for early implementation. He mentioned that holding four global meetings – two G20 summits and two Global South summits – in a single year demonstrated “the convening power of India” and the PM’s leadership. 

In his opening remarks at the virtual summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted that India succeeded in making G20 “inclusive, ambitious, action-oriented and decisive.”  He highlighted the significance of the adoption of the human-centric approach while supporting innovation and digital technology, renewal of faith in multilateralism, and AU as a new member of G20. “It is a matter of pride that Africa got a voice under India's presidency,” he observed. He spoke about the Israel-Hamas war, welcoming the agreement on the release of hostages and expressing hope that the conflict would not become a regional one. Given the major differences within G20 over this vexed question, it was, of course, not feasible to craft a common view, in contrast to the forum’s success in developing consensus on the Ukraine issue. 

Following the virtual summit, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar reiterated that India's G20 presidency was Global South-centric. It succeeded in putting focus on development issues. He also pointed out that many world leaders spoke on the West Asian turmoil and the need to extend humanitarian assistance to the needy and to find a long-term solution. 

Since the final meeting of G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors took place after the September summit, Nirmala Sitharaman, speaking at the post-virtual summit press conference, observed that India's endeavours to push for the reform of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) found support from G20 members. “There is significant momentum on this agenda now,” she stressed. The US and Germany are inclined to provide more resources to MDBs so that the latter could help developing countries address the challenges of development and climate change. Besides, the framework to regulate crypto assets is ready, and G20 countries are now expected to implement it. Not restricted to G20, this framework will extend to nearly 100 member nations of the Financial Stability Board (FSB). 

The Indian finance minister reported progress in implementing India's Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) initiative. MoUs for cooperation have been signed with eight countries: Singapore, UAE, Antigua and Barbuda, Armenia, Sierra Leone, Suriname, Papua New Guinea, Tanzania, and Trinidad and Tobago. Surprisingly, there are no takers from South Asia yet. However, negotiations are underway with other countries. More significantly, the PM announced the setting up of a Social Impact Fund with an initial contribution of $25 million by India and urged G20 countries to participate in this project. 

Another major decision related to the need for cooperation on “global regulation” of Artificial Intelligence (AI). The PM announced India's plan to host the Global AI Partnership Summit in December 2023, urging all G20 members to participate. 

What next? 

India's G20 presidency has been widely lauded for good reasons. 

But it is now time, especially for those seriously interested in tracking the evolution of G20, to shift attention to Brazil as the president from 1 December 2023. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will preside over the Rio de Janeiro summit on 18–19 November 2024. Its theme is already set – ‘Building a Just World and a Sustainable Planet.’ Lula has said that he would follow up on India's achievements. The three key priorities he has selected for the Brazilian presidency are: i) social inclusion and the fight against hunger, ii) the energy transition and sustainable development (including its economic, social and environmental dimensions) and iii) the reform of global governance institutions. It is to be hoped that in pursuing these priorities, Brazil will also keep a sharp eye on progress in the implementation of the New Delhi decisions. 

In this context, the role of the Troika for the next presidency, comprising India, Brazil and South Africa, becomes quite important. It has the responsibility to ensure continuity while leaving adequate room for the president to effect change and innovation in the G20 agenda. India has established a creative template for future presidencies. Since these three countries form the IBSA Forum, they are in a sound position to ensure optimal coordination through mutual accommodation and solidarity. Realpolitik may hamper this task a little. 
Hence keeping close communication at the leadership level may be essential. 

As John Kirton, Director G20 Research Group at the University of Toronto, pointed out aptly, G20 has secured “great successes” in the past but “greater challenges” await it in the future. 

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)